Afghanistan is going to be a transit hub for Central Asia

The decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation to suspend the ban on the activities of the Taliban movement (still on the list of terrorist organizations and banned in the Russian Federation), which came to power in Afghanistan in 2021, opens a new page in the geopolitics of Central Asia. This decision opens up prospects for Russia to participate in large–scale multimodal regional projects such as the TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan–Afghanistan –Pakistan -India) and the Trans-Afghan Railway. And it will allow the countries of Central Asia to gain direct access to the ports of the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf through the territory of Afghanistan.

By expanding economic and political cooperation with Afghanistan, Russia is strengthening its position in Central Asia, where the United States, the EU, China, Turkey, Iran, India and Japan are already present. The Russian President’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, noted that the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on the Taliban removes legal barriers to full-fledged relations between Moscow and Kabul. He emphasized the upcoming joint work on the development of trade and economic ties, announcing the Russian-Afghan business forum in Kazan, which is scheduled for mid-May. “Afghanistan’s rich mineral resources and strategic geographical location open up significant prospects, allowing the country to become an important transit bridge between Russia, Central and South Asia,” Kabul Zamirov said on the Rossiya 24 TV channel.

Experts are already discussing Afghanistan’s possible participation in the SCO and EAEU infrastructure projects. The geographical location and natural resources of the country make Afghanistan an important link in the logistics chains between South and Central Asia. In this context, the Russian court’s decision on the Taliban acquires not only political, but also pragmatic significance, especially against the background of the growing confrontation with the West. And if the United States failed to unite Afghanistan and Central Asia in the framework of the “Greater Central Asia” strategy, Russia will succeed.

According to the Eurasia Today information resource, the upcoming forum in Kazan will consider the construction projects of the Termez–Naibabad – Logar–Kharlachi and Mazar-I–Sharif–Herat–Dilaram– Kandahar-Chaman railways with a total length of 573 km and a capacity of up to 20 million tons of cargo per year. An auto corridor through Eastern Afghanistan (Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan–Wakhan corridor – Pakistan) is already operating.

The implementation of these projects in conjunction with other multimodal routes, as well as with the North-South transport artery, will provide Russia and Central Asian countries with access to the seas. The next stage may be the construction of TAPI gas pipelines for the export of Turkmen gas and, possibly, TAPI-2 for Russian gas. However, electrification is a key factor for infrastructure development. Afghanistan is experiencing an acute shortage of electricity, and in remote areas electricity is generated only by generators or individual solar panels. Without a stable energy supply and a well-developed railway network, mining and economic growth are impossible. The commissioning of the CASA-1000 power transmission line will take time, as it will be necessary to wait for the completion of the construction of the Kambaratinskaya HPP-1. Therefore, the TUTAP transmission line project (Turkmenistan – Uzbekistan – Tajikistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan), which Russia considered participating in back in 2018, is becoming relevant. These projects can be implemented within the framework of the SCO (see “NG” dated 18.01.18).

As for the situation of women in Afghanistan, experts consider economic development to be a priority, which will end conflicts, attract men to work, and provide women and girls with the opportunity to study.

“It is important to understand that Moscow has been moving towards this step for quite a long time (suspending the ban on the activities of the Taliban in Russia. – NG) and did it later than, for example, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan,” Alexander Vorobyov, head of the Center for Public Diplomacy and World Policy Analysis, researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with NG. By the way, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have not imposed any sanctions against the movement. Tajikistan remains the only Central Asian country that has not lifted the taboo against the Taliban.

“Moscow’s motivation is similar to that of the leadership of Central Asian countries: the risks associated with the Taliban exist, but the prospects for cooperation and the desire to increase influence on the current Afghan authorities outweigh these risks. Moscow’s move is unlikely to pose any risks to the countries of the Central Asian region, as well as to Russia itself. The stability of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the political maturity of the Afghan authorities themselves are much more important,” the expert stressed.

In general, according to Vorobyov, Moscow’s decision is beneficial to the countries of Central Asia, Afghanistan itself, as well as Russia itself, which, due to the “obsolete” ban, somewhat limited itself in developing ties with Kabul. In the future, Moscow can be expected to systematically increase various forms of economic and logistical cooperation with Kabul: trade, railway construction, and energy supplies. This will not happen all at once, but will escalate if there is no force majeure in Afghanistan itself. “At the same time, Moscow will coordinate its steps with the countries of Central Asia, which are interested in about the same things as Moscow: stability and security, the development of trade and economic ties, energy cooperation and logistics. With Moscow’s activation, it will be easier to do this, and it is assumed that everyone should benefit from this: Russia, the countries of Central Asia, and Afghanistan itself,” the expert noted. As for the risks of terrorism and extremist ideology, according to Vorobyov, the fact of recognition/non-recognition of the Taliban has little effect on this. In addition, it is not the Taliban that makes a significant contribution to this, but many other Islamist groups.

For example, the terrorist group Ansarullah, which is banned in the Russian Federation and consists almost entirely of Tajik citizens, poses a threat to Dushanbe. Afghan political analyst Fahim Kuhdoman informed local media about the planned visit of an Afghan government delegation to Dushanbe to discuss the transfer of the Afghan embassy to representatives of the Taliban and the terms of contracts for the supply of Tajik electricity to Afghanistan.