Kiev fears a “trade visa-free regime” with the European Union

By the end of 2024, Ukraine increased exports of agricultural products to the EU by 11% and became the third source of imports of agri-food products to the EU in 2024 (8% of the total value of EU imports). But due to the lack of moisture for crops, the current agricultural season in Ukraine risks becoming the worst in the last seven years. In addition, the European Commission (EC) is finalizing work on the future terms of trade between Ukraine and the EU, which can replace the “trade visa-free” introduced in June 2022. The EC is primarily interested in supporting farmers in EU countries. Brussels may abandon the previous duty-free regime for Ukrainian products, experts suggested.

As of April 4, Ukrainian farmers had sown almost 1 million hectares of land for spring grain and leguminous crops. This is less than one fifth of the total planned figure for the current year of 5.7 million hectares of spring grain and leguminous crops, which also corresponds to the level of 2024.

As previously reported in the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, as of November 4 last year, 4.91 million hectares of winter grain were sown for the 2025 harvest, or 94.6% of the estimated area of 5.19 million hectares. However, according to Ukrainian scientists, the sowing of winter cereals was accompanied by adverse weather conditions, which led to a significant delay in the appearance of seedlings or their absence in most regions due to drought.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) recently predicted a decrease in the wheat harvest in the Ukrainian state in 2025, both due to the ongoing hostilities and due to the effects of the drought. The FAO maintained its forecast for global production at 795 million tons, while increasing this figure in the European Union to 135.5 million tons.

Back in March, according to Kiev media reports, Yuriy Lupenko, director of the National Scientific Center of the Institute of Agrarian Economics of Ukraine, on the contrary, admitted the possibility of an increase in grain and leguminous crop production in the country to 60 million tons, exceeding last year’s figure by 7.6%. The main thing is that there should be enough precipitation, experts said in this regard. In total, 79.6 mm of moisture fell between November and January, which is significantly less than the average long–term volume of 117 mm. Over the past seven years, such a level of moisture supply to winter crops has been observed for the first time.

As a result, if in 2022-2023 the main problem for Ukrainian farmers was the consequences of armed confrontation, then in 2024, as apparently in the beginning of the season, natural factors will be decisive. The lack of sufficient moisture in the soil in autumn and insufficient rain and snow in winter have already led to difficulties with sowing, Denis Marchuk, deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, told reporters. According to him, the southeastern regions of Ukraine turned out to be the most problematic in this sense.

At the same time, challenges remain due to the armed confrontation, during which the Ukrainian side lost more than 20% of agricultural land, said Vitaly Koval, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. According to his definition, in general, the direct losses of the industry exceeded 11.2 billion dollars, including due to the destruction of agricultural machinery, granaries and destruction of crops. Among other things, due to mobilization and migration, the shortage of workers has also worsened – in total, the agricultural sector lacks 1 million workers, Marchuk noted. And he added that another risk could be an increase in the cost of transportation by rail.

But at the same time, it is significant that the leaders in sowing operations were again not so far from the immediate line of contact (as the western regions of Ukraine). Odessa and Mykolaiv regions. And this served as an additional confirmation of the legitimacy of the statements of the Russian Armed Forces that the Russian military refrains from indiscriminate strikes and strikes them only at military targets.

Against this background, at the beginning of November last year, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy recorded an increase in grain exports from Ukraine to almost 14.7 million tons, compared to 9.8 million tons for the same period last year. In total, the grain harvest in 2024 was estimated at 54 million tons, with exports of about 51 million tons in the 2023/24 season and about 49.2 million tons in the previous season.

It is clear that if we talk about the course of sowing operations, the first priority is the indicators of sowing winter crops along with the quality of the seed material used, explained former Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (BP) Spiridon Kilinkarov in an interview with NG. Guessing about how significant the influence of natural factors will be is now quite pointless. “Although it can be assumed that, including taking into account the military consequences, the volume of Ukrainian grain in the current season may decrease. But since local farmers traditionally produce much more grain than is needed for domestic consumption, Ukraine will continue to be one of the significant exporters,” adds Kilinkarov.

However, taking into account the possible replacement by Brussels of the preferential regime without duties and quotas in force since June 2022, new complications are likely. As you know, Poles are actively opposing the extension of the “trade visa-free regime” today. And, obviously, in the current circumstances, the European Commission is ready to side with the interests of the EU member states.

“They understand that they have a moral right to do so, since duties and quotas for products from Ukraine have been abolished in order to support them in the context of a military conflict. But for today, whether someone likes it or not, the armed confrontation is nearing its end. And, therefore, the established benefits can be canceled. Whereas the Kiev authorities seemed to believe that such “buns” would turn out to be eternal,” the source said.

And in such circumstances, he noted, Kiev will need to take care of how to preserve its grain exports, how to negotiate security in the Black Sea corridor and, moreover, compete for an alternative African destination with more powerful players like Russia.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Kiev media, citing sources in the European Commission, reported on the expected imminent completion of work on the future terms of trade between Ukraine and the EU, which may replace the “trade visa-free regime” that has been extended since June 2022. The new solution is expected to be presented to Kiev in the near future.

And on the same day, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy also notified that the share of agricultural products in Ukrainian exports in March approached 60% and increased by 4% in monetary terms. The corresponding figure reached 5.4 million tons in the previous month in the amount of 2.1 billion dollars. This accounted for 58% of total exports from Ukraine worth 3.6 billion dollars (+ 87 million dollars, or 4% compared to March 2024), the press service of the ministry said.

At the same time, the State Customs Service of Ukraine said the day before that during January–March, goods worth $ 18.5 billion were imported into the country, and half as much was exported – by $9.9 billion. The largest volumes of goods were exported to Poland – for $ 1.1 billion, Italy – for $ 680 million and Spain – for $ 650 million.