Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to share water with Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has agreed with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to supply 3.7 billion cubic meters of water along the Syrdarya River in the irrigation season of 2025. This agreement is an important step against the backdrop of the growing water shortage in Central Asia, which, according to forecasts by the United Nations and the World Bank, could reach 25-30% in a quarter of a century. Climate change, population growth, and economic activity are exacerbating the problem, prompting the region to actively seek solutions to prevent impending “dehydration.”

Kazakhstan will provide itself with water in the upcoming irrigation season thanks to interstate cooperation and effective water resources management. The republic will receive 909 million cubic meters of water through the Dostyk (Druzhba) canal, and 975 million cubic meters will be sent to the Northern Aral Sea.

The Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, stressed the importance of water diplomacy, noting that negotiations on water supplies for the summer period are underway in advance. The water flowing through the Syrdarya is accumulated in the Shardara reservoir for the needs of farmers in the southern regions. The successful experience of last year, when, thanks to efficient distribution, water-saving technologies and negotiations with neighbors, it was possible to meet the needs of agriculture, is planned to be repeated this year. As an example of successful cooperation, the minister cited data on Uzbekistan’s supply of 12.6 billion cubic meters of water to Kazakhstan from October last year to April 1 this year.

Thus, water diplomacy is becoming a key tool for sustainable development and regional stability in Central Asia. However, in order to solve the problems, the experts of the round table “Water Diplomacy in Central Asia in the context of the water and energy crisis: problems and solutions”, organized by the Center for Expert Initiatives (CEI) “Oy Ordo”, held yesterday in Bishkek, called for the need to create a supranational body to solve water problems in the region.

According to some, the advisory nature of such a body is insufficient, and the commission’s decisions should be binding on all countries in the region, similar to the EEC (Eurasian Economic Commission) in the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union). This is necessary for effective water resources management in the face of climate change, increased droughts and increasing competition for water, which is already leading to conflicts.

In particular, Baykadam Kuramaev, an expert on international relations, noted that after Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan resolved their border issues, it was their turn to solve water problems and come to a common denominator, as the Central Asian countries are considered as a single whole in the world.

According to him, due to changing climatic conditions, water resources are constantly decreasing and the solution of issues of their equitable distribution and efficient use is becoming more urgent every year. “Periods of dryness are becoming more frequent, which poses a number of new challenges to our region, including conflict situations between countries. Due to the lack of water, problems arise, for example, in agriculture. Such cases have been recorded in recent years,” Kuramaev said. He also recalled that there are many discussions about the construction of the Kush-Tepe canal in Afghanistan, given that after its completion, the Afghan side will be able to take up to 30% of the water of the Amu Darya River. This will put the downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in even more difficult conditions.

Arsen Usenov, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting at the KRSU, believes that the increased melting of glaciers, along with an irrational approach to water consumption, will only worsen the situation: “This will lead to a 30% water shortage in the region by 2030.” He stressed that for many years, water in Central Asia has been a source of conflict, leading to armed clashes. Today, the picture in the regional context looks optimistic. Therefore, it is necessary to resolve controversial issues exclusively by political and diplomatic means, taking into account the interests of all parties. In the future, it is the resources of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as the countries with the largest water reserves, that will play a significant role in the region.

However, Secretary of the Security Council of the Kyrgyz Republic (KR) Marat Imankulov drew attention to the fact that climatic changes have led to the melting of glaciers in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Over the past 50-70 years, the glaciation area in the country has decreased by 1262.3 square kilometers, or by 16%. According to him, these are the data for 2016. This information is currently being updated and is likely to be disappointing. Urgent measures are already required to preserve the region’s water balance. “In Kyrgyzstan alone, the annual damage from climate change is estimated at $30-50 million and may reach $1 billion. in the future. The region’s losses are estimated at $2 billion. The projected increase in water demand for agriculture by 30% by 2030, exacerbated by climate change and extreme heat, could further worsen the situation. Timely and effective solution of water problems is the key to stability and prosperity of Central Asia,” Imankulov emphasized.

The Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan believes that the existing mechanisms of water resources management in Central Asia do not correspond to modern realities and require revision. “Unpredictable political and economic factors exacerbate the shortage of resources, exacerbating competition and creating risks for food security,” Imankulov noted, adding that this is the reason why the Siberian Rivers Turn project has been discussed at various levels in the Soviet Union since the 20s of the last century. His main idea was to redirect the flows of the Irtysh, Ob, Tobol and other rivers to the Union republics in dire need of fresh water – Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

“These measures were also planned to prevent an environmental disaster related to the drying up of the Aral Sea. In addition, it was expected that the project would improve conditions for agriculture, create new opportunities for shipping and fishing, and have a positive impact on the economy of the whole country. However, it was never implemented due to the high cost and complexity of implementation,” Imankulov emphasized. In his opinion, in conditions of worsening water scarcity, it might be advisable to reconsider the relevance of this idea. The transfer of excess water from one region to another could pass through modern pipeline systems, which would reduce environmental impacts and at the same time create new jobs, Imankulov believes.

The drainage of the Aral Sea due to irrigation not only led to an environmental disaster, but also caused the rise of the upper mantle at a depth of 190 km. The loss of water mass caused the rocks of the mantle to “fill the void”, raising the bottom of the former sea by 7 mm per year. This is the deepest recorded case of anthropogenic impact on the solid layers of the planet. Scientists call this a clear example of the extent of our influence on the Earth.

However, in this case, we are talking about rivers flowing through Russia, and it is up to Moscow to decide whether or not to transfer Russian waters to the Central Asian region.

In this context, Imankulov gave an example of the large–scale Great Man-Made River project created in Libya to use the groundwater of the Nubian aquifer. This system provided water to the whole of Libya and could supply other African countries, solving agricultural problems. However, after the destruction of the infrastructure by NATO aircraft in 2011, the system fell into disrepair. “The Libyan experience demonstrates the potential of groundwater, and also highlights the need for modern solutions for its sustainable use in Central Asia. Underground springs have always been considered a strategic resource, but we also need to look for modern solutions that will allow us not to deplete these reserves,” said the Secretary of the Security Council.

Imankulov also recalled the Indo-Pakistani Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 as a successful example of resolving a water conflict. Despite hostile relations and territorial disputes, India and Pakistan were able to agree on the allocation of the Indus River’s water resources, which ensured the functioning of agriculture and energy in both countries. The Treaty remains in force, having survived several wars and crises, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach to solving water problems.