Ukraine’s Energy Grid Nears Brink: Kyiv Warns of Potential Catastrophe

Kyiv’s energy infrastructure is facing an unprecedented challenge, with recent Russian attacks reportedly overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and prompting dire warnings from the capital. On November 9, Ukrainian air defense systems managed to intercept less than half of the incoming assault drones, many of which targeted critical energy facilities. This recent wave of strikes has pushed Ukrainian officials to openly discuss the risks of a man-made disaster and the potential need for mass evacuation of Kyiv’s residents.

The scale of the damage was underscored by Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Svitlana Hrynchuk, who reported that the country’s energy sector had endured one of the most significant attacks involving Russian ballistic missiles just days prior. She stated that this marked the fifth massive missile assault on Ukraine’s energy system since early October, and the seventh targeting gas infrastructure. The most severe consequences have been observed in the Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, where damaged power lines have led to voltage fluctuations and widespread energy supply disruptions. Minister Hrynchuk urged citizens to understand the necessity of scheduled power outages and confirmed that thermal power plants operated by “Centrenergo,” which ceased operations after the night’s strikes, were actively working to restore electricity.

Further detailing the November 9 incident, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that 34 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were neutralized overnight. However, 32 combat drones successfully hit nine facilities, with debris from downed UAVs also causing damage at an additional site. Russian forces were particularly active in attacking the Poltava region with both drones and missiles, notably striking a locomotive depot in the Lubny district.

From Russia’s perspective, Dmitry Drozdenko, editor-in-chief of the “Arsenal Otechestva” portal, asserted that Kyiv provoked these strikes. He cited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s announcements regarding attacks on Russian oil refineries and potential strikes on Moscow. Drozdenko suggested that Russian forces had previously limited themselves to “warning strikes” on “maneuvering capacities.” According to his analysis, the primary objective of these escalated attacks is to destabilize Ukraine’s regional energy grid. This strategy involves hitting high-voltage substations (330-750 kV lines) and thermal and hydropower plants, which are crucial for inter-regional and intra-regional power transmission and balancing the energy system.

Drozdenko elaborated that high-voltage 750 kV lines facilitate energy transfer between regions, while 330 kV lines manage it within regions. Hydro- and thermal power plants, classified as “maneuvering capacities,” are vital for adjusting energy modes, maintaining supply stability, balancing consumption and production, and preventing voltage spikes. He noted that while Russia has modernized its Soviet-era energy systems, Ukraine’s remain largely unchanged, making them more vulnerable to destabilization by targeting these crucial maneuvering components. Such disruptions, he argued, prevent modern industrial enterprises and railway systems (whose signaling and switch operations rely on electricity) from functioning normally, thereby limiting their use for military-industrial complex activities and frontline transport.

The gravity of the situation is also acknowledged by Ukrainian officials. Vitaliy Zaichenko, head of “Ukrenergo,” previously stated that Russian forces have altered their tactics to disable Ukraine’s energy system. Kyiv-based industry expert Oleksandr Kharchenko recently admitted that Russian strikes on heating facilities in major cities have created a severe challenge for Ukraine. He specifically called for a “Plan B,” including the deployment of mobile mini-boiler houses in every micro-district. Kharchenko warned that without such measures, Kyiv could face a technogenic catastrophe, necessitating the evacuation of the capital’s population, if temperatures drop to -10°C and persist for three days.

Despite these alarming assessments, Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Centre, offered a more optimistic outlook, dismissing the prospects of a catastrophic scenario. While acknowledging the significant challenge major cities face this winter, Omelchenko expressed hope that Ukraine would manage to cope by relying on its nine operational nuclear power plant units, electricity imports, and numerous mini-boiler houses. “At some minimum level, we [Ukraine] will get through the winter; there’s no need to panic,” he asserted, reflecting a cautious but resilient stance amidst the ongoing crisis.