Armenia is preparing a referendum of Caucasian significance

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that he wanted to change the Constitution of the republic immediately after the Velvet revolution, but considered it untimely, since at that time it was only a few months old. In particular, people still did not understand which form of government was better for them: parliamentary or presidential. According to Pashinyan, since then there have been even more reasons to change the Basic Law of the country.

“The thesis I proposed on the new Constitution was widely discussed and presented as fulfilling the demand put forward by Azerbaijan. In fact, within the framework of the ideology of the “Real Armenia” it has a different meaning, although under these conditions it is impossible to deny that the text, which may exist on its own, will have regional significance,” Pashinyan said.

Before the Velvet revolution, the future Prime Minister of Armenia opposed the transformation of Armenia into a parliamentary republic. He believed that President Serzh Sargsyan specifically wanted to change the form of government in order to stay in power as long as possible. His suspicions turned out to be correct, but after heading the government, Pashinyan felt that Sargsyan’s idea still had common sense. It was only after the second Karabakh War that they returned to the topic of changing the Constitution.

As part of the discussion of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Baku demands that Yerevan remove from the Constitution a reference to the Declaration of Independence, which refers to the unification of Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition, by “Real Armenia” Pashinyan means, among other things, the rejection of the confrontation between Armenians and Turkish-Azerbaijanis, which initially acted as one of the foundations for building an independent republic. As an alternative to this struggle, he proposes his “Crossroads of the World” project, in which the states of the South Caucasus and their neighbors will be able to freely trade with each other and jointly develop the region. However, so far, from the point of view of many Armenians, the beautiful images hide only the demands of Azerbaijan to open the so-called Zangezur corridor.

In this regard, it is not surprising that, according to a survey conducted by the Gallup International Armenian Association, the majority of Armenians are against changing the Constitution. Thus, 59.6% of respondents are confident that there is nothing to change in the Constitution, 18.4% agree to change some points, and 7.5% are ready to adopt a completely new document. Another 14.5% are undecided about their decision. For comparison, in January 2024, 34.2% opposed any amendments, 14% agreed to change some points, and 13% supported the new Constitution. 38.8% found it difficult to answer. Aram Navasardyan, head of the Armenian representative office of Gallup International Association, believes that the demand of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to change the country’s Constitution has significantly influenced the position of Armenians.

At the same time, the majority of respondents are confident that Armenia needs early parliamentary elections. In particular, 44% fully share this requirement, 16.4% believe that it should be done “most likely”. 23.5% strongly oppose this, while 10.3% said that elections are “probably not needed.”

At the same time, Navasardyan believes that 23.5% of Armenians would be mistaken to be supporters of Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party. “I think there are people here who don’t see an alternative to today’s authorities or a political force they could vote for,” the sociologist noted. In particular, the survey revealed that only 9% of respondents fully approve of the work of the Prime Minister. 15.5% rate it “rather positively”. “Rather negatively” – 19.1%. 46.5% are completely dissatisfied.

Anyway, the Pashinyan government intends to prepare the text of a new Constitution by 2026. The authorities will publish the draft before the next parliamentary elections, and they are going to hold a referendum after them.

Hrant Mikaelyan, a researcher at the Caucasus Institute, notes: “What regional significance can we be talking about? The new Constitution will certainly have no impact on Armenia’s relations with Georgia and Iran. But Azerbaijan and Turkey are interested in it. Maybe if Pashinyan writes a point of European integration into the Constitution, it will affect relations between Moscow and Yerevan… But Baku is the main addressee in this whole story. Pashinyan makes it clear to Aliyev that he is ready to make concessions for the sake of a peace treaty.”

At the same time, the expert noted that the Constitution of Armenia has always been unbalanced. Every head of state has tried to rewrite it to suit his needs, but no one has yet succeeded in doing so. “In 1995, 2005 and 2015, the Basic Law was rewritten. Referendums have always been rigged, but the adopted Constitutions did not help the ruling elites retain power. In turn, Pashinyan will fail already at the plebiscite stage, because it is obvious to everyone that his project does not have public support,” the expert told NG.