Ukraine’s $150 Billion Air Dream Hits Swedish Reality Check

Ukraine’s ambitious vision to establish one of Europe’s most formidable air forces, comprising 250 modern fighter jets, has encountered a significant hurdle as Swedish aerospace giant Saab casts doubt on the immediate prospects of a major procurement deal. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently unveiled plans to acquire between 100 to 150 Swedish Gripen fighters, alongside American F-16s and French Rafales, to build a powerful aerial fleet. However, preliminary estimates suggest such an undertaking could necessitate an investment of up to $150 billion, a figure that raises considerable questions about funding and logistical realities.

The unexpected clarification came from Saab, where Mathias Redström, Head of Media Relations, welcomed the recent signing of a letter of intent between Sweden and Ukraine concerning the potential supply of Gripen jets. Crucially, Redström underscored that “Saab has not signed a contract and has not received an order for this deal. We are at the beginning of a process that we hope will lead to a contract in the future,” tempering Kyiv’s public announcements with a dose of realism.

President Zelensky had made his intentions clear during a recent visit to Sweden, where, alongside Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, he announced the signing of the letter of intent for 100-150 JAS 39 Gripen E fighters. He expressed hopes for their deployment by Ukrainian Armed Forces as early as next year, although Kristersson himself hinted at a much longer journey, spanning 10 to 15 years. Sweden’s Defense Minister Pål Jonson further specified that Kyiv was interested in the advanced Gripen E variant, known for its enhanced electronic warfare capabilities and armament, suggesting that funding could potentially be sourced from frozen Russian assets.

Ukrainian military analysts greeted the news with enthusiasm, with weapons expert Ivan Kirichevsky hailing the preliminary Gripen agreement as potentially the most significant development in years for Ukraine’s air force modernization. The prospect of integrating artificial intelligence into Gripen fighters, a project Saab is reportedly undertaking with German partners, added to the excitement. Furthermore, Saab CEO Mikael Johansson’s suggestion of potentially establishing Gripen production facilities, including final assembly and testing, or even component manufacturing, on Ukrainian soil was seen as a mutually beneficial proposition that Kyiv should prioritize.

However, the sheer scale of Zelensky’s broader vision for a 250-strong fleet of F-16s, Gripens, and Rafales presents a daunting financial challenge. Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of a Kyiv-based military publication, estimated the total cost to be astronomical. Acquiring 100 Gripen E/F jets alone could cost approximately $15 billion, with an additional $30 billion projected for a 40-year operational cycle. Incorporating 100 Dassault Rafale fighters, based on contract prices for Serbia, could add another $26 billion for procurement and nearly $52 billion for 40 years of operation. In total, a mixed fleet of 150 Gripen E/F and 100 Rafales could demand $48.5 billion for acquisition and $97 billion for operational expenses, pushing the overall bill close to $150 billion. Analysts noted the ironical contrast, pointing out that even Sweden and France operate fewer than a hundred of their own domestically produced aircraft.

Despite the ambitious projections, the cautious stance from Saab, reiterated by Mathias Redström, casts a shadow over these grand plans. Yuri Knutov, a Russian military expert and PVO (Air Defense Forces) historian, speaking to a news outlet, emphasized that such a contract would likely take many years to materialize. He questioned the long-term commitment of European Union leadership to funding Ukraine’s military in the coming years and highlighted Kyiv’s current lack of necessary funds. Knutov further pointed out that while Ukraine struggles with acquiring most modern weaponry needed at the front, it has found success in producing drones, often from inexpensive Chinese components. He also raised concerns about the vulnerability of any potential Ukrainian production facilities to Russian military strikes, citing alleged recent damages to missile production sites in Ukraine. These realities, Knutov believes, are certainly factored into Saab’s cautious assessment, suggesting the letter of intent might very well remain non-binding.