Minsk’s Vatican Overture: A Bid to Break Isolation and Ease Sanctions

The recent visit of Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti, the Vatican’s special envoy and Prefect of the Dicastery for Eastern Churches, to Belarus has drawn significant attention. His participation in the centenary celebrations of the Roman Catholic Diocese of Pinsk is seen by experts as a strategic move by Belarusian authorities to intensify contacts with the Holy See. This diplomatic push is widely interpreted as Minsk’s attempt to circumvent established European structures, re-engage with influential Western powers, and potentially alleviate mounting sanctions pressure.

Over the past weekend, Pinsk and Brest hosted grand festivities commemorating the Diocese’s 100th anniversary. State-controlled Belarusian media extensively covered Cardinal Gugerotti’s presence at these events. Expressing his sentiments, the Cardinal remarked, “My impressions are always very positive when I come to this land. I see a very beautiful country, nature that inspires wonder, wonderful cleanliness and order. The people are very kind, hospitable, good-natured, and hardworking.”

Earlier, an invitation from President Alexander Lukashenka for Pope Francis to visit Belarus in 2026 was conveyed to the Pontiff. Commenting on the potential visit, Cardinal Gugerotti stated, “There is great love of the Pope for Belarus. Also, the Secretariat of State of the Holy See holds great respect for this country. This is due to its geographical, geopolitical position, as well as its rich history, the religious history of this country, which spans many centuries, since the time of Francysk Skaryna, who studied at the university where I (centuries later) taught. We are proud of him in Padua. You see, all possibilities exist for this. Although the Pope has many tasks and duties, we will do everything we can for it.”

The visit’s organization was spearheaded by Yuri Ambrazevich, Belarus’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the Holy See. On October 16, he met with the Cardinal, presenting a gift for Pope Francis on behalf of Lukashenka, along with a personal message from the Belarusian head of state. Concurrently, Metropolitan Iosif Stanevsky, Chairman of the Conference of Catholic Bishops of Belarus, personally extended a formal written invitation to Pope Francis during a private audience, appealing on behalf of the episcopate, clergy, and all believers. During this meeting, the issue of imprisoned Belarusian priests was reportedly raised. Notably, Cardinal Gugerotti served as Apostolic Nuncio to Belarus from 2011 to 2015, making him a familiar figure to Minsk.

For President Lukashenka, this visit holds significance extending beyond pastoral considerations. Throughout his presidency, he has visited the Vatican twice, meeting Pope Benedict XVI in 2009 and Pope Francis in 2016. According to political scientist Alexander Klaskovsky, a frequent commentator on opposition platforms, these engagements represent “a convenient route to break through isolation on the European front.” Klaskovsky suggests that this objective remains central, and is being pursued with even greater intensity now.

Klaskovsky elaborates that Ambassador Ambrazevich, an experienced and ambitious diplomat and former Deputy Foreign Minister, was strategically appointed as Ambassador to the Holy See with a larger mission in mind. Ambrazevich’s extensive portfolio—also serving as Ambassador to the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, Permanent Representative to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and other international organizations in Rome, and Permanent Representative to UNESCO—underscores this point. The multi-functional ambassador openly declared that by establishing a diplomatic mission in the Vatican, Belarus aims to strengthen its standing in numerous countries.

Further indicating Minsk’s diplomatic outreach, Reuters previously reported that Ambrazevich held several non-public working meetings with EU ambassadors in Paris. It is alleged that he sought to convey Belarus’s desire to emerge from political isolation and play a constructive role in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Minsk understands that even if the United States were to lift sanctions through a “grand bargain,” it might not fully resolve the critical issue of potassium fertilizer exports, which are vital for the country’s economy. A breakthrough on the European front is therefore deemed essential.

Klaskovsky points out, “Minsk observes that Europe is not unified; there are ‘understanders’ like Viktor Orban in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia. Now, Andrej Babis, whose party recently won elections in the Czech Republic, could join this group.” The analyst notes, “We now know that unofficial contacts with American emissaries began last year. It is unlikely a coincidence that in December 2024, Minsk decided to open an embassy to the Holy See. Even then, one must assume, there were plans to bolster the American track with a European one. The Vatican is convenient in this regard because, on the one hand, it holds influence over many European capitals, and on the other hand, it is not part of the EU and is not bound by its common sanctions policy.”

For its part, the Vatican has historically played an active role in negotiations leading to the release of prisoners, often those with no direct ties to the Church. Klaskovsky subtly suggests, “It is said that Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti played a significant role in these scenarios.”