Moldova’s Decisive EU Turn: Sandu’s Party Wins, Tells Russia ‘Goodbye’

Moldova has taken a decisive step away from Russian influence and towards the European Union following a commanding victory for President Maia Sandu’s pro-European “Action and Solidarity” (PAS) party in parliamentary elections. The win secures a stable majority for the party, paving the way for an accelerated pro-Western reform agenda and cementing a significant geopolitical shift in the region.

The PAS party secured 55 of the 101 seats in parliament, a result heavily bolstered by the votes of the Moldovan diaspora in Western countries. The outcome was swiftly met with a chorus of congratulations from top European leaders, including the heads of the European Commission, Council, and Parliament. Underscoring the new political reality, Sandu’s presidential spokesperson, Igor Zakharov, bluntly stated on social media, “Russia should forget about us – we clearly told it ‘goodbye’.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, among the first to congratulate Sandu, issued a thinly veiled warning to the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, suggesting its leadership remained “quiet because they are afraid of us” and that he had personally warned them ahead of the Moldovan vote. This has amplified fears within the separatist region, with local official Andrei Safonov warning that the election victory creates a danger that Chișinău could be “dragged into a war against Transnistria and Russia.”

Domestically, the opposition is bracing for what it fears will be a period of political reprisal. Mark Tkaciuk, a leader of an opposition bloc, predicted a continuation of pre-election raids and arrests, stating the new government would “cleanse” political opponents oriented towards Russia. He warned of a “strangulation” strategy against Transnistria, including a potential energy blockade by 2026, pointing to the closure of bridges on election day that prevented many Transnistrian residents from voting.

However, other analysts see a more complex path forward. Victor Șelin, leader of the Social Democratic Party, believes Sandu will avoid direct military escalation in Transnistria, despite pressure from Kyiv. Instead, he suggests her government will focus on EU integration while providing logistical infrastructure for military transit from the EU to Ukraine. Șelin also noted that the war in Ukraine has ironically pushed Transnistria’s economy closer to the EU, opening the possibility that the region could integrate into the bloc alongside the rest of Moldova.

The election has also exposed deep divisions within the country, particularly in the autonomous region of Gagauzia, where 82% of voters backed a pro-Russian bloc. Local leaders fear retribution for their political stance, citing the recent jailing of their elected governor, Eugenia Guțul, and expressing concern that the central government will not forgive Gagauzia for its pro-Russian alignment.

Political analyst Anatol Durun concluded that the campaign highlighted Moldova’s central contradiction: PAS achieved its victory by capitalizing on a vision that has split the nation. He noted that the significant vote for opposition parties demonstrates a strong societal demand for balance, but that the opposition has so far failed to offer a clear alternative project for the country’s development. The next four years will be critical in determining Moldova’s ultimate geopolitical trajectory.