Kazakhstan Shuffles Top Diplomat Amid Border and Policy Crisis

Kazakhstan has appointed a new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yeremek Kosherbayev, in a significant government reshuffle. Kosherbayev’s immediate priority is to prepare for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s state visit to Russia in November. His predecessor, Murat Nurtleu, has been moved to the role of presidential aide for international investment and trade. Experts suggest the changes are aimed at rebooting the country’s foreign policy and optimizing the administrative apparatus, with further cabinet changes potentially on the horizon.

The appointment comes as Kazakhstan grapples with a critical situation on its border with Russia. Thousands of trucks, many carrying goods from China, are backed up at checkpoints, facing exhaustive inspections that drivers claim are causing week-long delays under dire conditions. Typically, only a fraction of vehicles face such scrutiny. However, Russia’s Federal Customs Service has denied implementing any new restrictions, stating that the traffic jams are a result of a seasonal increase in cargo volume and standard anti-smuggling operations.

The new minister, Kosherbayev, is no stranger to the Russian portfolio, having served as Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Russia from 2020 to 2023. His extensive career also includes roles as vice-minister of agriculture, deputy foreign minister, and most recently, governor of the East Kazakhstan region. This background positions him as a figure well-versed in the complexities of Kazakh-Russian relations, a crucial asset given the current tensions.

However, some analysts view the reshuffle in a more critical light. Gulnar Bazhkenova, editor-in-chief of Orda.kz, described the move as evidence of a “total failure in foreign policy.” She alleges that Murat Nurtleu’s dismissal was linked to a colossal $14 billion discrepancy in trade statistics between China and Kazakhstan, a concern reportedly raised by Beijing during the recent SCO summit. Bazhkenova’s outlet had previously reported, though it was officially denied, that Nurtleu was under investigation.

According to Bazhkenova, the core of the issue lies with uncontrolled smuggling at the Khorgos border crossing, where Chinese goods allegedly enter Kazakhstan and are then re-exported to Russia as Kazakh products. This has resulted in significant losses of customs and tax revenue for both Russia and Kazakhstan. She claims responsibility for this situation rested with the outgoing minister, Murat Nurtleu, making his removal inevitable.

This critique extends to Kazakhstan’s relations with the West. Bazhkenova asserts that President Tokayev’s recent visit to the UN General Assembly in New York was a failure, lacking any significant high-level meetings, which she termed “sabotage.” This, she argues, led to the dismissal of Yerzhan Ashikbayev, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to the United States, shortly after the foreign minister was replaced.

Other experts offer a more nuanced interpretation. Political scientist Andrey Chebotarev believes Nurtleu remains a trusted member of the president’s inner circle, now operating in a less public, supervisory role. Chebotarev suggests the ambassador’s removal in Washington is a strategic move to prepare for a potential change in the US administration and may also be linked to the recent imposition of 25% US tariffs on certain Kazakh goods.

Another analyst, Daniyar Ashimbayev, dismisses the idea of a policy crisis, arguing the changes are primarily about administrative optimization. He contends that the president’s administration had become bloated with too many advisors, leading to inefficiency and duplicated functions. Ashimbayev insists that despite the personnel changes, Kazakhstan’s fundamental “multi-vector” foreign policy, focused on stability and consensus, will remain unchanged.