Kyrgyzstan Eyes Snap Elections, ‘Tajik Model’ of Rule Looms

Kyrgyzstan is on the verge of a major political shake-up as its parliament, the Jogorku Kenesh, moves towards self-dissolution to trigger early elections. The move comes as Kyrgyz officials look to Tajikistan for political inspiration, sparking concerns among experts that the country is abandoning its democratic path in favor of a more authoritarian model of governance. An initiative group has already secured the 30 lawmaker signatures required to begin the dissolution process, aiming to preemptively weaken the opposition and separate the parliamentary vote from the next presidential election.

The path to snap elections is now laid out. According to MP Akbokon Tashranbekov, who confirmed he was the 30th signatory, the initiative will first be reviewed by the parliamentary committee on constitutional law before being passed to the speaker. If approved, the motion for self-dissolution will require the support of at least 60 of the 90 deputies. It is widely reported that lawmakers were incentivized to support the motion with promises of retaining their seats in the next parliament. Should the vote succeed, President Sadyr Japarov will be obligated to call for new elections to be held within 40 to 65 days.

These potential elections would be the first held under a new electoral law enacted in June 2025, which fundamentally alters the country’s political landscape. The law scraps the proportional system for a majoritarian one, establishing 30 multi-member constituencies. A key and progressive feature of the new system is a gender quota: each district will elect three deputies, one of whom must be a woman. This measure guarantees that female representation in the Jogorku Kenesh will rise to at least 30%, a significant increase from the less than 20% in the current legislature. Kyrgyzstan’s Central Election Commission has already stated its readiness to organize the vote on short notice.

However, the reforms have been met with sharp criticism. Alexander Kobrinsky, Director of the Agency for Ethno-National Strategies, warns that the shift to a majoritarian system is ill-advised for post-Soviet nations. “In these conditions, elections are often won by those supported by the executive branch, or by people with a lot of money, usually of non-transparent origin,” he stated. Kobrinsky expressed deep concern over Kyrgyzstan’s political trajectory, arguing that the nation is “drifting towards harsh authoritarian rule” and that its era as one of the most democratic states in the region, where citizens could freely protest, is coming to an end.

The recent working visit of Kyrgyz parliamentary speaker Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu to Dushanbe to study the Tajik system is seen as a clear indicator of this authoritarian trend. Kobrinsky draws a direct parallel, describing Tajikistan’s parliament as a “decorative” body that rubber-stamps government decisions, with no genuine opposition parties and all deputies under the firm control of the state. He predicts a similar fate for Kyrgyzstan’s next parliament. “We will not see any new faces,” Kobrinsky forecasted, asserting that “all deputies will be approved by the highest authority.”

According to the expert, real power in Kyrgyzstan is concentrated in the hands of a “duumvirate”: President Sadyr Japarov and the head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), Kamchybek Tashiev. While Japarov focuses on foreign policy, Kobrinsky contends that Tashiev effectively controls the country’s domestic agenda, including the current parliament. This dynamic suggests that the next legislative body will also fall under the security chief’s control, cementing the power vertical.

President Japarov’s focus on the international stage was recently highlighted by a meeting with a delegation from the financial firm Rothschild & Co to discuss investment and economic cooperation. Japarov hailed the company’s interest as a “sign of trust.” However, for analysts like Kobrinsky, these political and economic maneuvers, when viewed together, point to a larger geopolitical realignment. His stark conclusion is that Kyrgyzstan is “increasingly drifting away from Russia.”