Transnistria Braces for Winter Gas Crisis Amid Political Tensions

The unrecognized republic of Transnistria is urgently preparing for a harsh winter with potential gas shortages, installing solid-fuel boilers in state institutions and social facilities. The local Electromash plant has begun producing these boilers as a contingency, with Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky declaring that the region “must be prepared for any scenario.”

While authorities in Chisinau have pledged not to obstruct gas flows to the breakaway region’s residential consumers, they have made it clear that Transnistria’s industry—the primary driver of its economy—will have to find its own solutions. In response, the region’s Supreme Soviet has granted its government expanded powers to manage financial issues related to the looming energy crisis.

The preparations are haunted by the memory of a recent gas cutoff in January, which resulted from unresolved financial disputes between Russia’s Gazprom and Moldova’s Moldovagaz, compounded by the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. The disruption caused widespread power outages, a loss of heating and hot water, and a shutdown of industrial enterprises until supplies were partially restored through European market purchases.

In stark contrast, the rest of Moldova appears to have secured its winter energy needs. The state-owned company Energocom reported purchasing approximately 91% of its required gas by early September, though it cited confidentiality clauses for not disclosing the price.

This energy struggle is unfolding against a backdrop of fierce political maneuvering ahead of Moldova’s parliamentary elections. A staggering $11.8 billion gas debt, accumulated by Transnistria but technically owed by Moldovagaz, has become a political weapon. The ruling PAS party accuses pro-Russian opposition parties of planning to force Moldovan citizens to pay this debt if they win power, a claim denied by Socialist Party leader and former president Igor Dodon, who insists the debt remains Tiraspol’s responsibility.

Moldova’s strategic shift away from cheap Russian gas, which was previously used by the Transnistrian-based Moldavskaya GRES power plant to supply affordable electricity to the entire country, has had severe economic consequences. Energy prices have skyrocketed, with natural gas tariffs increasing six-fold between 2020 and 2022, drastically reducing the purchasing power of the average citizen.

Since 2022, the Moldovan government has been providing energy subsidies, largely funded by loans and grants from the EU, IMF, and other international partners. However, patience with non-payment is wearing thin. While previously citizens could pay winter bills in installments, energy suppliers are now threatening legal action for delays of over a month, adding to the social pressure.

Adding a layer of geopolitical anxiety, a report by the Spanish publication Pressenza.com, citing Ukrainian sources, has circulated in local media. The article speculates on a scenario where Ukrainian troops could enter Transnistria in response to a staged provocation following the Moldovan elections. A Moldovan newspaper that reprinted the story concluded with a bleak outlook, suggesting that the only hope for peace in the region lies in a change of leadership in the United States.