Kyiv Eyes Korean-Style Armistice; Moscow Rejects Freeze

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged the possibility of ending the war with Russia based on a “Korean scenario,” which would involve an armistice without a formal peace treaty. This approach would allow Kyiv to halt active hostilities without legally recognizing Russia’s annexation of its territories, as confirmed by Zelensky in an interview with the French publication Le Point.

However, the Ukrainian leader expressed significant reservations, arguing that the model, while economically promising for South Korea, is ill-suited to Ukraine’s security needs. He contrasted the threat posed by North Korea, with its population of around 20 million, to the far greater scale of the challenge from Russia, a nation of over 140 million people. “You cannot compare the scale of these threats. The threats from Russia are greater,” Zelensky stated, reiterating his warning that Moscow could use occupied Ukrainian land as a springboard for future attacks on Europe.

This discussion comes as some Western analysts suggest such a scenario could be advantageous for Kyiv. The Telegraph newspaper proposed that a Korean-style truce could ultimately lead to a “German finale.” A temporary cessation of fighting, without legal recognition of territorial losses, could provide Ukraine with the crucial time needed to strengthen its military and economy, potentially enabling a future campaign to reclaim its lands.

Adding to the discourse, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, also floated the idea of freezing the conflict along the current front lines. His appeal was directed at Washington, urging the United States to invest in a “just finalization” of the war to ensure Russia gains “no dividends.” This framing presents continued support for Ukraine as a strategic imperative for the U.S. to counter a shifting global order.

Conversely, Moscow has consistently signaled that any temporary freezing of the conflict is unacceptable. Russian officials maintain that such a pause would fail to achieve their primary strategic objectives, including securing Ukraine’s neutral, non-aligned status and its demilitarization. According to Russian strategic expert Oleg Nemensky, a ceasefire would merely provide Kyiv with a “breathing spell” to rearm, making a future resumption of the conflict inevitable. “The root causes of the military conflict would remain and worsen,” Nemensky argued, emphasizing that Russia is not interested in such an outcome.