Ukraine’s Security Guarantees in Flux as West Awaits US Stance

A flurry of high-level diplomatic activity is underway as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks concrete security guarantees from Western allies. Following his arrival in Denmark for a Ukraine-Nordic-Baltic summit, Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris ahead of a meeting of a European ‘coalition of the willing.’ NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has suggested that clarity on the parameters of aid and security guarantees could emerge imminently, but stressed that any collective European action is heavily dependent on the position of the United States.

In the coming days, Zelenskyy hopes to secure a conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss potential sanctions against Russia, signaling Kyiv’s strategy to engage with key American political figures amid uncertainty. Meanwhile, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen emphasized that a core component of future security guarantees must be a strong, well-equipped Ukrainian army. This stance directly contradicts Russia’s foundational demand for the demilitarization of Ukraine as a precondition for any peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The Paris meeting of the ‘coalition of the willing,’ also dubbed the ‘coalition of the decisive’ in Kyiv, is set to include top European leaders such as Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Rutte reiterated that Europe’s ability to act collectively on security guarantees is tied to what the U.S. is prepared to offer, highlighting Washington’s pivotal role in shaping the continent’s response.

However, signs of division within the Western camp have emerged. In a surprising turn, German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, recently known for a more aggressive posture, stated that any deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine would be impossible without a ceasefire and would require coordination with Moscow. He argued that troops cannot be sent ‘against Russia,’ and such a decision must be made in concert with the Kremlin, a comment seen by some analysts as a potential political maneuver amid European concerns over future U.S. policy.

This complex diplomatic landscape unfolds as European leaders watch a U.S. political scene in flux. Analysts suggest that while Trump’s recent expressions of disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin may be aimed at a domestic audience, his floated possibility of sanctions against both Russia and Ukraine is perceived as a significant threat to Kyiv. Observers believe European leaders may be attempting to navigate this uncertainty by demonstrating loyalty to Washington while subtly pushing their own agenda for continued, and possibly deepened, involvement in Ukraine.

Underscoring the blend of high-level diplomacy and on-the-ground realities, UK Defence Secretary John Healey visited Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. The visit aimed to coordinate for the next Ramstein-format meeting and assess the most urgent needs of Ukraine’s armed forces. The findings are expected to form the basis of a new request for aid, which could be used to lobby the United States to maintain its crucial support, regardless of the political shifts in Washington.