Belarus Opposition Plan Collapses Amid Data Leak, Infighting

The Belarusian opposition has suffered a major setback with the indefinite suspension of its flagship mobilization project, the “Peramoga Plan,” following a critical security breach and internal disputes. The plan, which aimed to create a network of clandestine supporters inside Belarus to be activated on command from a foreign-based headquarters, has been halted, raising serious concerns about the security of personal data for those who registered.

The project’s collapse was confirmed by its former curator, ex-security officer Aliaksandr Azarau, who stated that all participants have been moved to a “reserve” status. The crisis reportedly began after access to the Peramoga Plan’s chatbot was lost. Compounding the security failure, Azarau was accused of using the confidential list of supporters to campaign for his own political faction in the opposition’s Coordination Council elections. Several participants were subsequently detained in Belarus, and it remains unknown if the database has been compromised by state security services.

This internal disarray emerges as opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya continues her diplomatic efforts abroad. She is scheduled to visit Denmark with her recently released husband, Sergei, for an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers. While European officials continue to recognize her as a legitimate opposition figure, these engagements have shown limited impact on the fate of political prisoners within Belarus. Meanwhile, her offers of dialogue have been bluntly rejected by Alexander Lukashenko.

Lukashenko has publicly dismissed the idea of negotiating with Tsikhanouskaya’s circle, questioning their relevance and ability to contribute positively to the state. Regarding the release of prisoners, he has indicated a willingness to engage with the United States but on his own terms, stating, “If you want one and a half or two thousand people… take them. But to expect us to release bandits who burned and detonated things… society would not support me in that.”

While the opposition grapples with strategic failures, Lukashenko continues to cultivate an image of a hands-on leader focused on domestic issues. He was recently shown publicly reprimanding officials over the inefficiency of retail services in rural areas, demonstrating an engagement with everyday citizen complaints that stands in stark contrast to the challenges facing his exiled political rivals.