Armenia, Iran Upgrade Ties Amid US-Backed ‘Trump Road’ Fears

Armenia and Iran have declared their intention to elevate their relationship to a strategic partnership, a significant move announced during a visit by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Yerevan. This deepening of ties comes as Tehran expresses growing anxiety over a proposed US-backed transport route in southern Armenia, colloquially known as the “Trump Road,” which it views as a potential threat to its regional security and influence.

Following high-level negotiations, the two nations signed ten memorandums of understanding spanning political, economic, educational, and cultural spheres. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, at a joint press conference, stated that the time had come to formalize the strategic nature of their bilateral relations. He expressed hope that this enhanced partnership would also bolster his “Crossroads of Peace” initiative, which aims to transform Armenia into a regional transit hub.

Pashinyan addressed Tehran’s concerns directly, briefing his Iranian counterpart on the “Trump Road” discussions with the United States. He sought to reassure Pezeshkian that any unblocked transport communications, including a potential route through Nakhijevan to Julfa, would operate strictly under Armenian sovereignty and security control. In response, President Pezeshkian endorsed the strategic upgrade but issued a stark warning that the interference of “non-regional players” — a clear reference to the US and EU — would only complicate the situation in the South Caucasus.

Tehran’s primary fear is that the infrastructure project could serve as a pretext for the United States to establish a military presence in Armenia’s strategic Syunik province, which borders Iran. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has voiced these concerns openly, stating that while it welcomes a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is wary of growing Western and Israeli influence in the region. An Iranian official confirmed that Yerevan had provided assurances that no third-party military forces would be deployed along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

Despite official apprehension, some in Iran see opportunity. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested in a Foreign Policy article that the US-backed deal could be a chance to revive broader transit cooperation involving Iran, Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, rather than viewing it solely as a threat.

Beyond geopolitics, the visit yielded concrete economic agreements. Discussions focused on advancing the North-South transport corridor, building a second bridge over the Aras River, and developing a comprehensive Persian Gulf-Black Sea road and rail corridor. Further boosting trade, Iran’s recent free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), of which Armenia is a member, has eliminated tariffs on 87% of goods, positioning Armenia as a key gateway for Iran into the wider EAEU market.

Analysts describe the partnership as existentially important for landlocked Armenia, which currently relies on just two primary outlets to the world: through Georgia and Iran. With relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan still fraught with uncertainty, Iran provides a vital alternative. For Tehran, maintaining a direct route to the Black Sea and Russia that bypasses its regional rivals, Turkey and Azerbaijan, is a strategic imperative. This explains Iran’s consistent support for Armenia’s sovereignty over the Syunik region, as it seeks to prevent a potential blockade of its northern access. The two countries are aiming to quadruple their annual trade turnover from the current $737 million to an ambitious $3 billion, highlighting the significant economic stakes underpinning their strategic pivot.