Belarus at Crossroads: Trump, Putin & a Prisoner Dilemma

A sudden flurry of high-level diplomacy has placed Belarus at the center of a complex geopolitical game involving Moscow and Washington. The developments were spurred by a phone call between Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. President Donald Trump, who subsequently praised his counterpart on social media. Trump highlighted his hope for the imminent release of 1,300 prisoners in Belarus, putting the nation’s beleaguered opposition in a state of both anticipation and disarray.

In a social media post, Trump referred to Lukashenko as a “powerful leader” and thanked him for the recent release of 16 prisoners, adding that their “wonderful conversation” also touched upon the potential freedom of 1,300 others. According to Lukashenko’s press service, the Belarusian leader extended an invitation for Trump and his family to visit Minsk, which was reportedly accepted. This potential diplomatic opening coincides with Lukashenko’s renewed domestic focus on turning tourism into a “national project,” seemingly positioning Belarus to capitalize on any newfound international interest.

This direct engagement with Washington was followed by a phone call between Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discussed the results of the recent Russia-U.S. summit in Alaska, with Putin providing a detailed briefing to his Belarusian ally. Alexander Volfovich, Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, framed Trump’s call to Lukashenko as a “wise” political move, suggesting the U.S. leader valued Minsk’s perspective ahead of the critical talks and underscoring Belarus’s aim to help end the conflict in Ukraine.

The Belarusian opposition views these maneuvers with a mix of hope and suspicion. Pavel Latushko, a senior figure in Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s United Transitional Cabinet (UTC), believes Lukashenko is pursuing two primary goals. The first is to host Ukraine peace negotiations in Minsk, thereby restoring his international legitimacy. The second, more immediate objective, is to leverage the release of political prisoners to secure the lifting of Western sanctions.

While acknowledging the moral difficulty of hearing a figure they oppose receive praise on the world stage, opposition leaders are focused on the potential outcome. “Let’s evaluate the result,” Latushko stated, emphasizing that the complete release of all political prisoners and an end to repression remains the ultimate priority. However, the prospect of a mass release has thrown the opposition into a logistical crisis.

The UTC convened an emergency meeting to address the rapidly evolving situation. Olga Zazulinskaya, a UTC representative, voiced concerns that the opposition’s humanitarian funds would be insufficient to support 1,300 freed individuals at once. While welcoming the news, she admitted the movement must urgently prepare to assist the released prisoners, whether they choose to remain in Belarus or are forced to leave. Zazulinskaya issued an appeal to the Belarusian diaspora, urging them to help solve the looming financial and logistical challenge.