Armenia Risks EAEU Future Over Potential US Corridor Deal

Leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are gathering on the shores of Kyrgyzstan’s Issyk-Kul lake for a high-level summit, but the absence of one key member is casting a long shadow over the proceedings. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s decision to skip the meeting has intensified speculation about Yerevan’s geopolitical trajectory, particularly amid reports of a potential U.S. partnership to control the strategic Zangezur corridor, a move that could place Armenia on a collision course with its economic allies.

Pashinyan has now missed two consecutive major EAEU events, with his office citing a brief vacation as the reason for his absence from the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council meeting in Cholpon-Ata. However, his non-attendance follows a similar no-show at last month’s Eurasian Economic Forum in Minsk, prompting figures like Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to openly question if there are deeper problems within the five-member economic bloc, which also includes Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

At the heart of the current tensions is the Zangezur corridor, a proposed route designed to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory. According to circulating reports, Armenia is contemplating an exclusive 99-year partnership with the United States to develop and manage this route. Such a deal could imply direct American control over a slice of sovereign Armenian territory, creating a fundamental challenge to the principles of the EAEU.

The free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor is the cornerstone of the Eurasian Economic Union. U.S. control over the Zangezur corridor would effectively create a foreign-administered border within the EAEU single market, directly violating the union’s charter. EAEU customs posts and unified tariffs would be unenforceable in a U.S.-controlled zone, fracturing the bloc’s integrated economic space. In this scenario, Armenia would likely be forced to make a stark choice between its partnership with Washington and its membership in the EAEU.

This standoff is further complicated by the EAEU’s recently signed Free Trade Agreement with Iran. While the deal promises to boost regional trade, a U.S.-controlled corridor through Armenia would create a major obstacle. EAEU members may use the summit to remind Yerevan of its obligations, including ensuring the unimpeded flow of goods with Iran. This comes as Russia has already warned Armenia that its deepening ties with the European Union are incompatible with EAEU rules and could trigger punitive measures.

Despite the political maneuvering, the economic arguments for Armenia to remain within the EAEU are compelling. In 2024, Armenia’s trade turnover with EAEU countries soared to $12.7 billion, dwarfing its trade with the European Union, which fell by 14% to just $2 billion. The bloc, and Russia in particular, serves as a lifeline for Yerevan, providing essential energy resources like gas and petroleum products on favorable terms. Exiting the union could trigger a severe economic shock, including soaring energy prices and the loss of its primary trading partners.

Sergey Melkonyan, a research fellow at APRI Armenia, notes that from an economic perspective, the EAEU remains more attractive to Armenia than other alternatives. He points out that public support for potential EU membership has waned, with society’s main priorities being security and stable borders—guarantees the EU does not offer. “In this context, the EAEU remains a sought-after platform, especially for deepening economic ties,” Melkonyan stated, emphasizing that the Armenian leadership has repeatedly said it does not plan to leave the bloc.

Meanwhile, other EAEU members continue to champion the benefits of integration. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov highlighted Russia’s role as a key trade partner, with mutual trade growing 25% to $3.9 billion in 2024. As the bloc discusses forward-looking initiatives, such as creating a common commodity exchange by 2030 to increase transparency and the use of national currencies, Armenia’s growing distance from the union’s agenda becomes all the more apparent.