Fugitive Oligarch’s Return Shakes Up Moldova’s Tense Election

Moldova is bracing for a turbulent parliamentary election in September, a scenario dramatically intensified by the declared political comeback of fugitive oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. The announcement came as his former political vehicle, the Democratic Party, was resurrected under a new name—the Modern Democratic Party of Moldova (SDPM)—and became the last party to register for the upcoming race. Plahotniuc, currently detained in Athens awaiting a decision on his extradition to Moldova, confirmed his intent to re-enter the political arena in a video message, vowing to restore “order and well-being” to the nation.

The pre-election climate is already fraught with tension, as President Maia Sandu’s government faces mounting accusations of using state power to suppress political rivals. The campaign has been marked by police raids in the autonomous region of Gagauzia, which law enforcement described as part of an anti-corruption probe. The “Heart of Moldova” party, led by former Gagauz governor Irina Vlah, has appealed to international observers, citing “illegal” pressure from security forces after Vlah’s daughter was detained and party materials were confiscated.

Critics argue that these actions are part of a broader crackdown on dissent. The opposition newspaper “Moldavskie Vedomosti” has starkly declared that the “police baton is becoming the symbol of the parliamentary elections.” This sentiment is fueled by a court decision banning the Communist Party from campaign advertising, legal actions by the Ministry of Justice to dissolve four parties allegedly linked to the outlawed “Shor” party, and ongoing protests demanding the release of the current Gagauz governor, Evghenia Guțul, who was recently sentenced to prison.

A central point of contention is the Constitutional Court. The ruling PAS party, led by Parliamentary Speaker Igor Grosu, is moving to swear in new judges approved by President Sandu. This has sparked alarm even among Sandu’s erstwhile supporters, with former Prime Minister Ion Sturza publicly stating that the court is not independent and now serves the ruling party. He suggested this control would allow Sandu to refuse a prime minister nominated by a victorious opposition, effectively neutralizing a democratic election result and securing her pro-Western agenda.

The stakes of the September election are widely seen as defining the nation’s future. The outcome will determine whether Moldova continues its path toward European integration or shifts its geopolitical alignment back toward Moscow. The election is a critical juncture for “strengthening our European orientation and continuing reforms to protecting sovereignty and ensuring energy stability,” according to independent candidate Andrei Năstase.

Recent polls indicate that while President Sandu’s PAS party leads with 26-32% support, it is unlikely to secure an outright majority to form a government alone. Its main challenger is Igor Dodon’s pro-Russian “Patriotic Bloc,” polling at 13-17%. Other key players include the “Alternative” bloc, which is formally pro-European but viewed with suspicion by the government, and Renato Usatîi’s “Our Party.” Usatîi is emerging as a potential kingmaker, capable of forming a coalition with either the pro-Western or pro-Russian factions, leaving the country’s political future hanging in the balance.