Caucasus Turning Point: Armenia, Azerbaijan Ink US-Brokered Peace Deal

In a historic development signaling a major geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan have initialed a comprehensive peace agreement in Washington. The US-mediated talks culminated in a breakthrough, with US President Donald Trump remarking that he now considers Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to be his ‘good friends,’ underscoring the deep American involvement in ending one of the post-Soviet space’s most protracted conflicts.

The initialed text, prepared in Armenian, Azerbaijani, and English, with the English version taking precedence in case of disputes, lays the groundwork for what both sides term a ‘just, comprehensive, and durable peace.’ The 17-article treaty is built upon foundational international documents, including the UN Charter and the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, which established the administrative borders of Soviet republics as international frontiers. This provision effectively serves as mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity within their Soviet-era boundaries.

Under the terms of the agreement, both Yerevan and Baku commit to refraining from supporting separatist movements and to combat intolerance and racial hatred. Crucially, the deal stipulates that no third-country military forces will be stationed along their shared border. It also mandates the immediate withdrawal of all mutual lawsuits from international courts within a month of final signing. The treaty is designed to supersede national legislation, with a special joint commission to be formed to resolve any interpretative disagreements. The long-standing OSCE Minsk Group, a format co-chaired by France, Russia, and the US that failed to resolve the conflict for decades, is also set to be dissolved.

Beyond the peace treaty, Washington has also brokered a separate arrangement between the US and Armenia to develop the so-called ‘Zangezur corridor,’ referred to as the Meghri road. While the full text of this side deal remains unpublished, it is known to involve the creation of a joint US-Armenian company to invest in and manage transport infrastructure in Armenia’s southern Syunik province. This project is strategically vital as it would connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory, potentially unlocking major trade routes.

The international reaction has been mixed, reflecting the shifting power dynamics in the region. While the European Union and NATO have welcomed the move, traditional powerbrokers Russia and Iran have responded with caution. Moscow, while endorsing the pursuit of peace, warned that any new regional security architecture must not undermine the interests of other regional players. The Kremlin also pointedly reminded Yerevan of its obligations as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), particularly concerning transit arrangements that a US-backed corridor might entail.

Iran’s response was initially hostile, with a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader vowing to turn the ‘Trump road’ into a ‘cemetery for his mercenaries.’ However, Tehran later softened its tone, with the Iranian President welcoming any agreement that fosters regional stability. This diplomatic shift came with a stark warning against allowing any American military presence in Armenia, accusing the US of using investment as a pretext for ‘expansionist goals.’

Analysts in Baku view the agreement as the culmination of Azerbaijan’s diplomatic strategy, asserting that the text incorporates all of its primary demands, including Armenia’s eventual agreement to withdraw international lawsuits. The final hurdle, from the Azerbaijani perspective, is an amendment to Armenia’s constitution, which currently contains a reference to unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku insists this change is a prerequisite for a lasting peace.

For Armenia, the deal is seen as a pragmatic, if difficult, success for Prime Minister Pashinyan, moving the country out of a precarious state of ‘neither war nor peace’ following its defeat in the 2020 Second Karabakh War. Experts in Yerevan believe the treaty, while not ideal, provides a crucial opportunity to normalize relations and attract Western investment. They concede that changing the constitution remains a deeply divisive issue but suggest that it will become more palatable over time as the economic benefits of peace become apparent.