Ukraine’s Gas Imports Skyrocket Amid Critically Low Reserves

Ukraine is facing a critical energy situation as its natural gas reserves in underground storage facilities have plummeted to a 12-year low. According to a report by the analytical firm ExPro, storage was only 32.3% full as of early August, holding just 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas. This falls significantly short of the 13.2 bcm target set by the Ministry of Energy as necessary to safely navigate the upcoming 2025-2026 heating season.

To bridge this gap, Ukraine has dramatically ramped up its gas imports. In July, the country imported 833 million cubic meters of gas, a 1.5-fold increase from June and a staggering 16-fold surge compared to the same month last year. This marks the highest monthly import volume in nearly two years, as authorities race to inject sufficient gas into storage before the November 1st deadline.

The bulk of these imports arrived from neighboring EU countries, with Hungary supplying 36%, Slovakia 32.2%, and Poland 31.2%. However, energy experts note that a significant portion of this gas is effectively Russian fuel being resold through intermediaries. This situation stems from Kyiv’s 2015 decision to halt direct gas purchases from Russia and the expiration of the Russian gas transit agreement on January 1, 2025, forcing Ukraine to rely on more complex and expensive reverse-flow arrangements.

In an effort to diversify its supply, Kyiv is also exploring the Trans-Balkan corridor to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from US terminals in Greece and gas from Azerbaijan. The first test deliveries of Azerbaijani gas occurred in late July. This route has historically been considered prohibitively expensive, and while recent tariff reductions have been negotiated, experts suggest it remains a costlier alternative to other European import points.

The escalating cost of imported gas is expected to have a direct impact on Ukrainian households. The National Bank of Ukraine has already forecasted a gradual increase in utility tariffs for electricity, gas, and heating starting in 2026. While a moratorium on price hikes remains in effect for 2025, the central bank has warned that bringing tariffs to “economically justified levels” will be necessary, a move that could trigger a new wave of inflation.