Water Scarcity Fuels Push for a New Central Asian Alliance

Bishkek is preparing to host the leaders of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as a severe water crisis tightens its grip on Central Asia. The upcoming month is poised to be pivotal for the region, culminating in a Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State in Tashkent. The water issue, underscored by the ecological disasters of the Aral Sea and the Caspian Sea, is expected to dominate the agenda, presenting not just environmental but profound economic and security risks.

Against this urgent backdrop, regional powers are intensifying discussions around a potential Central Asian union, a concept that has so far been met with caution by Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Recently, Bishkek became a hub of diplomatic activity as the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Murat Nurtleu, and Uzbekistan, Bakhtiyor Saidov, held talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov. The dialogue centered on deepening trade, economic cooperation, and advancing major interstate projects like the Kambar-Ata-1 hydroelectric power plant and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway.

The groundwork for this closer integration is already being laid. The upcoming visit of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Bishkek will feature the seventh session of the Supreme Interstate Council. This follows Tokayev’s recent ratification of a treaty on deepening allied relations with Kyrgyzstan, mirroring a similar alliance agreement Kazakhstan signed with Uzbekistan in December 2022. According to Tokayev, these moves have elevated regional relations “to the level of a deep strategic partnership and alliance.”

Analysts suggest that Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan may soon follow suit, potentially signing their own allied relations treaty during President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s visit to Bishkek. This would be a significant step, fulfilling President Japarov’s earlier proposal to upgrade ties with Tashkent following the successful resolution of long-standing border disputes. “The upcoming visits of the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Bishkek underscore a growing trend towards regional integration in Central Asia,” notes Igor Shestakov, director of the ‘Oi Ordo’ expert initiative center. However, he cautions that this push for unity coexists with a complex rivalry for regional leadership.

Meanwhile, other nations are cautiously engaging. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon recently made an unannounced visit to Kyrgyzstan, signaling the importance of resolving state border delimitation. For President Rahmon, successfully settling this contentious issue could be a landmark achievement ahead of a potential power transition in Tajikistan. Yet, both Tajikistan and Turkmenistan remain skeptical of a broader union, notably refusing to sign the key regional treaty on Friendship, Good Neighborliness, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century.

Turkmenistan, citing its official policy of neutrality, has so far abstained from active participation in these integration processes. According to Shestakov, a shift in Ashgabat’s position toward greater geopolitical activity would be a crucial step toward forming a unified Central Asian bloc. Such a union could more effectively address shared challenges in water, energy, and food security, and could even extend to creating a common defense policy and an indivisible security space. For presidents Tokayev and Mirziyoyev, the ultimate goal appears clear: a future for Central Asia built on tight-knit regional cooperation and a single market, potentially creating a powerful bloc to counterbalance other regional organizations.