Kazakhstan Eyes Turkey for Oil Route, Skirting Russia’s Grip

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is set to visit Ankara on July 29 for high-stakes talks with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The meeting’s agenda is topped by a strategically crucial issue for Kazakhstan: the diversification of its oil export routes to bypass Russia. Central to this discussion will be the potential for increasing oil shipments through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a move that signals Astana’s growing urgency to secure its economic lifelines from geopolitical turbulence involving its northern neighbor.

The two leaders will also convene the fifth meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council to address a wide array of topics, including economic integration, digital transformation, and defense initiatives. Building on a vision of “advanced strategic partnership” rooted in shared history and culture, they aim to finally achieve a long-standing goal of boosting bilateral trade to an ambitious $10 billion, a target first set in 2016 that remains a key benchmark for the relationship.

Despite the warm rhetoric, the partnership faces significant hurdles. Stanislav Pritchin, a Central Asia expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ IMEMO institute, notes that economic cooperation has not accelerated as quickly as hoped. He points to limiting factors such as geographical distance and fundamental differences in national priorities. While Turkey is a top-ten trading partner for Kazakhstan, Turkish investment remains concentrated in construction and tourism, and a 2023 agreement to produce Turkish drones in Kazakhstan has yet to be implemented.

Cultural affinity and the promotion of a common Turkic identity serve as a major pillar of their ties. Kazakhstan hosts the International Turkic Academy and numerous Turkish educational institutions. Ankara is actively working to bring these schools under the control of its state-run “Maarif” foundation, replacing a network previously linked to Fethullah Gülen, whom Turkey blames for the 2016 coup attempt. However, these educational ties still lag significantly behind Kazakhstan’s extensive academic cooperation with Russia, China, and the West.

The push for energy diversification has been fueled by Astana’s fears that Western sanctions against Russia could cripple the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the primary route for Kazakh oil. These concerns were amplified recently when exports via the CPC were temporarily halted due to new Russian regulations requiring foreign vessels to obtain permission from the FSB to enter Russian ports. Although experts like Pritchin view this as a temporary technical issue, it underscores Kazakhstan’s vulnerability.

However, shifting significant volumes to the BTC pipeline is fraught with its own challenges. The route is considerably more expensive, and the required infrastructure is not yet in place. Furthermore, a major obstacle lies in the oil itself. Kazakhstan’s crude is of a lower quality and sells at a discount compared to Azerbaijan’s premium Azeri Light. Mixing the two would degrade the overall quality and lower the price, a financial loss Azerbaijan is unlikely to accept without compensation, creating a complex negotiation for all parties involved.