Georgia’s EU Dream on the Brink of Collapse

The European Union has issued a stark ultimatum to Georgia, threatening to sever the country’s path to European integration if the government does not return to a democratic course by the end of the summer. At stake are Georgia’s coveted visa-free travel regime with the EU and its foundational Association Agreement, the cornerstones of their relationship.

The standoff follows the passing of controversial laws, including one on “foreign agents” and another on “family values,” which Brussels says contradict European values. In a letter to Georgia’s Foreign Ministry, the European Commission’s Director-General for Migration, Beate Gmunder, urged Tbilisi to repeal the new legislation, protect minority rights, and address shortcomings in its anti-corruption policies. The EU has already begun to apply pressure, with 12 member states revoking visa-free access for holders of Georgian diplomatic and service passports.

Top EU officials have confirmed the gravity of the situation, with a deadline reportedly set for August 31. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, acting as the EU’s foreign policy chief, stated that the “attack on democracy by the ‘Georgian Dream’ is becoming more and more serious” and that a high price will be paid for democratic backsliding. Measures being considered include the full suspension of the visa-free regime and the Association Agreement, as well as targeted sanctions.

However, Georgia’s ruling party, ‘Georgian Dream,’ has responded with defiance rather than conciliation. Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili accused the EU of employing “Soviet-style attacks” and demanded an apology for what he termed misinformation. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze went further, declaring that the government would choose peace and stability over visa liberalization. “When they make you choose between peace and stability on the one hand, and visa liberalization on the other, it means they want to take away your peace and stability,” he announced, signaling a readiness to let the relationship falter.

Analysts are divided on the outcome of this high-stakes confrontation. Some experts believe the ruling party has adopted a toxic rhetoric and is engaged in an information war, underestimating the potential fallout. The suspension of the visa-free regime could anger not only the opposition but also a significant portion of the government’s own supporters who favor European integration, potentially deepening the domestic political crisis. While Georgia’s trade has been shifting away from the EU towards Russia and other neighbors, the economic and political consequences of a definitive break with Brussels could still be severe.

Conversely, other political observers argue that the issue is being framed as an infringement on Georgia’s sovereignty. They contend that the visa-free regime is not the highest national interest and that Brussels is making politicized demands, such as interfering in judicial processes, which no sovereign government can accept. From this perspective, the ‘Georgian Dream’ government is defending national principles against unilateral pressure. As the summer deadline approaches, Georgia finds itself at a critical crossroads, caught between its constitutional aspiration for EU membership and its government’s increasingly confrontational stance toward its Western partners.