Armenia’s Geopolitical Gambit: Courting EU, SCO, Ditching Moscow Pact

Armenia is charting a new, complex foreign policy course, simultaneously pursuing membership in the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), while signaling a near-certain departure from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan framed this strategy as a “balanced” approach not aimed at confrontation with Moscow, but rather at transforming relations to be “much better than before.”

Pashinyan confirmed that Yerevan has formally applied for full membership in the SCO, an organization that includes China, Russia, and India. This move, he argues, is a logical extension of Armenia’s observer status and its policy of diversification. In parallel, the Armenian leader expressed a long-term ambition for the nation to join the European Union within the next two decades. Even if membership is not ultimately achieved, he stressed that the reform process itself would align Armenia’s standards with those of EU member states.

The Prime Minister stated that an Armenian exit from the CSTO is the “most likely” scenario, a decision rooted in what he described as the alliance’s inaction during Azerbaijan’s 2022 military incursions. According to Pashinyan, the CSTO’s response was a stunning declaration that Armenia’s borders were unclear. This, he explained, forced his government to confront the issue of its own sovereign territory, leading to the landmark recognition of its own borders and those of its neighbours.

Despite these dramatic shifts and recent tensions, including the suspension of some Russian television broadcasts, Pashinyan insisted that Yerevan is not seeking conflict with its historic ally. He described the relationship as being in a “phase of transformation” toward one based on mutual respect. The Prime Minister mentioned his “respectful, open, transparent, and honest” personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting that external pressures from certain forces in Russia were aimed at forcing his hand on sensitive issues.

According to Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, this policy reflects a traditional Armenian strategy of diversifying international ties. He noted that joining the SCO is a pragmatic step to strengthen ties with key members like China and India, while the EU aspiration serves primarily as a domestic political narrative. Iskandaryan concluded that while Armenian-Russian relations are in crisis, Armenia is effectively already outside the CSTO in practice, making a formal withdrawal from the military bloc a logical, if not immediate, final step.